Today's class we started off with reviewing yesterdays homework before we moved on to 'Transition Matrices'
From what I understand, a Transition Matrices is a matrix that shows things that change in time.
Your trying to find the probability of things that you want to know in the future.
When doing a transition matrix you would have to find the state matrix ( which tells you the current state of affairs)
and the transition matrix ( which tells you what's going to change).
When writing a 'State matrix' you would have to know the current event that is taking place to fill in the matrices.
For example the state matrix would look like this,
B R
S = [ number of blue shoes number of red shoes]
If the person had 10 blue shoes and 2 red shoes then your state matrix would be..
B R
S = [ 10 2 ]
If you wanted to find out if a person wanted to use blue shoes, they have a 90% chance that they would use red shoes.
If the person wanted to wear red shoes, they would have a 50% chance that they would wear blue shoes.
To figure this out, you can also use a 'transition diagram' to help you
through the process.
This way you can also see what the changes are.
So your transition diagram would look like the picture below.![](http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_23Ser57vURA/SZOANvx7bjI/AAAAAAAAAFA/h6llCaK3BlU/s400/Snapshot+2009-02-11+19-54-49.jpg)
From here you can see what you need to make a 'Transition matrix' .
![](http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_23Ser57vURA/SZOFZN19KNI/AAAAAAAAAFQ/HSRdRvU9WoM/s400/Snapshot+2009-02-11+20-12-06.jpg)
Then you would have to plug in the numbers.
![](http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_23Ser57vURA/SZOFzUDkMjI/AAAAAAAAAFY/cmnE4e7O2ik/s400/Snapshot+2009-02-11+20-17-14.jpg)
You transition matrix would equal to..
1 comments:
I think the probabilities have to add up to 100% for this exercise, by having them add up to more than 100%, you suggest that the shoppers will begin buying two or three brands... I believe.
Post a Comment